Nine weeks of cumulative disruption have moved from the news cycle into European supply chains. Households face €150 to €2,200 in additional annual costs depending on how the conflict resolves – with German, British and Dutch homes most exposed. The timing is fixed regardless of what happens in the Gulf next.
Wholesale energy and feedstock prices have been re-pricing across European supply chains since 28 February 2026. By autumn, those increases land in retail catalogues and household bills. The question this index answers is not whether the cost will arrive – it is which countries are most exposed to it, and through which goods.
The Afterbuy Research European Hormuz Basket Index ranks ten European economies on their structural exposure to consumer-price pass-through across 25 everyday household goods. Germany, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands sit in the critical band. Italy and Spain absorb least. The forty-one-point spread is driven by energy mix, retail intensity and industrial composition – not by what the Strait does next week.
The index is built from six independently weighted dimensions measuring LNG dependence, e-commerce intensity, petrochemical feedstock reliance, synthetic textile consumption, energy storage buffer, and supply-chain concentration. Inputs are drawn from named public sources covering 2024 to 2026, including the European Central Bank's March 2026 staff projections, which set the inflation pass-through framework used in the household impact estimates below. The frame is cumulative: scores are anchored to the elapsed nine-plus weeks since 28 February, not to the diplomatic status of the Strait at any given moment.
Whatever the headlines say tomorrow - Strait open, Strait closed, ceasefire, escalation, partial reopening - the disruption that has already occurred has consequences that cannot be unwound by political developments alone. These are the costs now baked into European supply chains for the months ahead, no matter what the news says.
Even on the day the Strait reopens cleanly, vessel positioning, insurance contracts, and rerouted cargo schedules take roughly three months to return to pre-crisis equilibrium. Freight cost premiums on that lag continue feeding into landed retail prices.
Locked in regardless of Strait statusEU gas storage entered the 2026 injection season at approximately 28% – the lowest start to a refill cycle since 2021–22. A full summer-long injection cycle will be required to approach winter targets, and that cycle has begun in a tight market. Households face a winter heating-bill exposure that is now structural for at least one heating season.
Source: Gas Infrastructure EuropeThe Arabian Gulf accounts for approximately 46% of global seaborne urea fertiliser flows. Disruption to those flows during a spring planting window has consequences that propagate through the next harvest cycle into bread, cooking oil, and meat prices - a transmission lag of months, not weeks, that is already underway.
Source: Signal Ocean / TSG, March 2026One in five LNG cargoes globally transits the Strait of Hormuz. Even after a return to normal shipping, war-risk insurance premiums and re-priced long-term supply contracts carry forward into 2027 contract pricing. The risk premium does not vanish on the day the headlines do.
Source: Wood Mackenzie, March 2026European retail typically lags wholesale energy and feedstock prices by three to nine months. Increases in producer prices already incurred since February 2026 will land in autumn and winter 2026 retail catalogues – apparel, electronics, household goods – regardless of what wholesale prices do from here.
Pass-through lag · structuralProcurement teams across European utilities and industrial buyers are now actively re-evaluating Qatar-routed supply contracts. Whether or not the Strait remains open, the sourcing decisions taken in 2026 will shape European LNG supply mix into the 2030s. The political event has already triggered structural change.
Multi-year structural shiftEstimated annual additional household costs across the 25-item basket, by scenario. Ranges derived by applying ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections (March 2026, Box 2 and Section 3) inflation differentials to country household final consumption expenditure (Eurostat, 2024) and weighting by each country's structural exposure score in this index. Households on fixed incomes, single-parent households and tenants in poorly insulated stock face exposures at the upper end of each range. Higher-end estimates assume both 2026 and 2027 sit in the relevant scenario's full-year impact zone.
Cost arrival is uneven by household type and geography. The pass-through hits in waves, not at once.
UK and Dutch households see first heating bills under re-priced LNG contracts. UK gas reserves remain critically low entering winter, which is why UK inflation is forecast to breach 5%.
Q4 retail repricing lands across apparel, electronics and household goods. German and Austrian households absorb largest synthetic-textile pass-through.
European bread and cooking-oil prices reflect the spring 2026 fertiliser disruption working through the harvest cycle. Polish households most exposed via national food basket weighting.
Re-priced long-term LNG contracts carry the risk premium forward. Households on standard variable tariffs absorb it directly, with no fixed-rate cushion.
Switzerland sits in the high-exposure band. Its industrial polymer demand and gas-heating share place it above eight EU economies. The Hormuz cost arrives at the Swiss household regardless of franc strength.
Italy's per-capita synthetic textile consumption is the lowest of the ten countries scored. Wool, linen, cotton and leather dominate the local basket. The Hormuz disruption hits Italy's wardrobe least – the IMF flagged Italy as one of Europe's most exposed via gas-fired power, but its consumer goods basket compensates.
The composite score combines LNG & gas dependence (25%), the e-commerce multiplier (20%), petrochemical feedstock dependence (20%), synthetic textile consumption (15%), energy-storage buffer (10%), and supply-chain concentration (10%). Scores run 0–100; higher values indicate greater structural exposure under sustained disruption.
| Country | Score | LNG | E-commerce | Returns | Gas heating | Energy buffer | Distinguishing factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Germany#1 |
85 |
High | Very high | Very high | High | Moderate | Highest manufacturing pass-through |
United Kingdom#2 |
81 |
Very high | Very high | High | High | Critically low | Most Qatar-dependent winter |
Netherlands#3 |
79 |
Very high (gas hub) | High | High | High | Energy hub exposed | Gas hub feels every shock first |
Poland#4 |
71 |
Medium | Medium-high | Medium | Medium | Coal reserve | Bread basket most exposed |
Austria#5 |
67 |
High | High | Medium | High | Low reserves | Highest gas-heating share |
Switzerland#6 |
64 |
Medium-high | High | Medium | Medium | Hydro buffer | Wealth is no shield |
France#7 |
61 |
Low | High | Medium | Low | Strong (nuclear) | Nuclear shield: lowest LNG exposure in top ten |
Turkey#8 |
56 |
Medium-high | Medium | Low-medium | Medium | Pipeline access | Pipelines mask petrochemical exposure |
Spain#9 |
48 |
Low-medium | Medium | Low-medium | Low | Diversified | Diversification pays |
Italy#10 |
44 |
Medium | Medium | Low-medium | Low-medium | Moderate | Textile heritage shields the basket |
Day-to-day developments in the Strait dominate headlines but matter little for what households actually pay. The forces shaping European consumer prices over the coming years operate on slower clocks. Three horizons sit beyond the immediate news cycle, each offering a distinct frame for interpreting where the costs measured by this index are likely to settle.
Wholesale energy and feedstock cost increases that have already been incurred work their way into shelf prices. Logistics surcharges, contract renewals, and seasonal pricing cycles transmit upstream pressure into household bills. Consumer inflation typically lags producer inflation by three to nine months in European retail.
Procurement teams renegotiate sourcing. Storage operators rebuild buffers across one or two refill cycles. Petrochemical buyers test alternative feedstock origins. National policy responses - subsidies, strategic reserves, infrastructure decisions - begin to take effect. The country scores in this index could shift meaningfully as energy postures and supply mixes adjust.
The dimensions that drive most of the index - petrochemical industry size, e-commerce intensity, synthetic textile consumption, energy mix - only shift on multi-year horizons. Industrial relocation, electrification of heating, biomaterial substitution, and energy-mix decarbonisation all move on this clock. The country rankings produced by this index would only fundamentally redraw themselves over a horizon of this length.
Most basket goods are made globally - predominantly in China, South and South-East Asia, using petrochemical feedstocks from the Gulf. The ratings below do not reflect manufacturing location. They reflect each country's structural exposure to consumer price impact, driven by energy costs, LNG import dependence, the fuel surcharge embedded in last-mile logistics, and the share of the retail price tied to synthetically-affected materials.
| Product | DE | UK | NL | PL | AT | CH | FR | TR | ES | IT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apparel & Textiles - assembled in Asia from Gulf petrochemical feedstock; price impact via logistics energy | ||||||||||
| Polyester jacketSynthetic shell, Asian assembly | ||||||||||
| Trainers / sports shoes | ||||||||||
| Running leggings / activewear | ||||||||||
| Winter duvet (synthetic fill) | ||||||||||
| Electronics - assembled in China/Taiwan; consumer impact via airfreight surcharges and domestic energy | ||||||||||
| Laptop / notebook | ||||||||||
| Smartphone | ||||||||||
| Household & Packaging - plastic products use ethylene/propylene from Gulf refineries | ||||||||||
| Plastic food containers | ||||||||||
| Bin liners / refuse bags | ||||||||||
| Flat-pack furniture (MDF/resin) | ||||||||||
| Food & Agriculture - driven by fertiliser costs (Arabian Gulf ≈ 46% of global urea flows, Signal Ocean) and transport energy | ||||||||||
| Bread (fertiliser & freight) | ||||||||||
| Cooking oil (palm / sunflower) | ||||||||||
| Fertiliser (urea, retail bag) | ||||||||||
| Energy & Transport - directly driven by crude and LNG prices | ||||||||||
| Petrol / unleaded fuel (per L) | ||||||||||
| Gas bill / heating | ||||||||||
| Flight ticket (jet fuel surcharge) | ||||||||||
| Personal care & Household - petrochemical surfactants and polymers, globally manufactured | ||||||||||
| Disposable nappies / diapers | ||||||||||
| Detergent (synthetic surfactants) | ||||||||||
| Liquid soap / shower gel | ||||||||||
| Automotive - synthetic rubber tyres (butadiene from naphtha); motor oil direct from crude | ||||||||||
| Car tyres (synthetic rubber) | ||||||||||
| Motor oil / lubricant | ||||||||||
| EV battery (petcoke / processing) | ||||||||||
| Synthetic sofa cushion (polyurethane) | ||||||||||
Ratings reflect structural exposure in the destination market - not the country of manufacture, and not a price forecast.
The European Hormuz Basket Index assigns each country a composite exposure score from 0 to 100. The score is built from six independently measured dimensions, each scored 0–100 and multiplied by its weight. The index measures structural exposure, not real-time spot prices. All input data come from named public sources covering 2024–2026.
The same four steps are applied identically to every country.
Each country is measured on the same six dimensions: LNG and gas dependence, e-commerce intensity, petrochemical feedstock dependence, synthetic textile consumption, energy storage buffer, and supply-chain concentration. These were chosen because together they capture the main pathways through which a Strait of Hormuz disruption reaches a household's shelf - energy bills, retail logistics, manufactured goods, and food.
For each dimension, every country receives a raw score from 0 (no exposure) to 100 (maximum exposure). Scores are calculated from the underlying public data - for example, LNG share of national gas supply, e-commerce penetration rates, petrochemical-industry size, gas-storage levels - and normalised across the ten countries so the highest-exposure country sits near the top of the scale.
Not every dimension matters equally. Energy and industrial structure drive the largest share of consumer-price exposure, so they carry the heaviest weights. The weights - D1 25%, D2 20%, D3 20%, D4 15%, D5 10%, D6 10% - total 100% and are applied identically to every country.
Each country's six dimension scores are multiplied by their weights and summed. The result is the country's final composite score, rounded to a whole number. 80–90 is Critical, 65–79 is High, 50–64 is Medium, under 50 is Low.
(78 × 0.25) + (95 × 0.20) + (88 × 0.20) + (85 × 0.15) + (62 × 0.10) + (82 × 0.10) = 83.25 → rounded to 85
Note on dimension D5 (Energy storage buffer). This dimension is inverted: a strong buffer reduces exposure, so a high buffer translates to a low D5 score. France scores low on D5 (well-buffered), which lowers its total. The UK scores high on D5 (poorly buffered), which raises its total.
| Dimension | Weight | DE | UK | NL | PL | AT | CH | FR | TR | ES | IT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 - LNG & gas dependence | 25% | 78 | 90 | 88 | 52 | 74 | 60 | 28 | 58 | 38 | 55 |
| D2 - E-commerce multiplier | 20% | 95 | 88 | 82 | 65 | 70 | 76 | 68 | 48 | 55 | 42 |
| D3 - Petrochemical feedstock | 20% | 88 | 72 | 85 | 74 | 65 | 72 | 70 | 58 | 50 | 44 |
| D4 - Synthetic textile consumption | 15% | 85 | 72 | 70 | 68 | 62 | 65 | 58 | 60 | 48 | 32 |
| D5 - Energy buffer (inverted) | 10% | 62 | 85 | 78 | 40 | 72 | 38 | 18 | 55 | 30 | 48 |
| D6 - Supply-chain concentration | 10% | 82 | 68 | 72 | 80 | 55 | 60 | 58 | 50 | 45 | 38 |
| Total | 100% | 85 | 81 | 79 | 71 | 67 | 64 | 61 | 56 | 48 | 44 |
Scored on three inputs: (a) share of national gas supply from LNG in 2025, (b) Qatar-specific LNG dependence as a share of total LNG imports, and (c) gas storage level relative to EU mandated targets. Qatar supplies approximately 9% of total EU LNG imports.
Sources - Gas Infrastructure Europe (AGSI); Reuters LNG flow reporting (March 2026); European Commission gas storage data; Bruegel European natural gas imports dataset; Wood Mackenzie LNG transit analysis (March 2026).
Calculated as: (e-commerce penetration × 0.6) + (fashion return rate × 0.4), normalised 0–100. Germany scores highest, with the highest combined penetration and return rates among the ten countries scored.
Sources - Eurostat e-commerce penetration data (isoc_ec_ibuy); national e-commerce retail surveys; published industry return-rate studies. Specific national figures: verify with Afterbuy Research before citation.
Measures industrial exposure to Gulf-sourced petrochemical feedstocks: ethylene, propylene, methanol and sulphur. Germany scores highest, reflecting its position as Europe's largest chemicals producer.
Sources - CEFIC European Chemical Industry Facts & Figures; Eurostat structural business statistics; Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association (GPCA) production data. Specific national figures: verify with Afterbuy Research before citation.
Per-capita consumption of synthetic textiles: polyester, nylon, acrylic and elastane. Germany leads the ten countries scored on this dimension.
Sources - Textile Exchange Materials Market Report; EURATEX industry statistics. Specific national figures: verify with Afterbuy Research before citation.
An inverted score: higher buffer = lower exposure score on this dimension. France scores lowest (best protected), reflecting its dominant nuclear power share - approximately 70% of national electricity generation.
Sources - Ember Global Electricity Review (France country profile); EDF nuclear output statistics; Gas Infrastructure Europe storage data; World Nuclear Association.
Measures the degree to which key basket items rely on Gulf-sourced supply chains. The Arabian Gulf accounts for approximately 46% of global seaborne urea fertiliser flows (Signal Ocean, 2025), making fertiliser-dependent basket items a key driver of this dimension.
Sources - Signal Ocean / TSG Market Insights (March 2026); IFPRI fertilizer market analysis (April 2026); American Farm Bureau Federation Market Intel (March 2026); International Fertilizer Association (IFA).
Limitations and caveats. Dimension scores draw on normalised quantitative inputs where data are available, and on informed estimates where no country-specific public data exist. The composite is a structural index and is not a price forecast. The "Snapshot" section reports volatile, point-in-time figures that do not feed the index calculation.
Every dimension score in the Hormuz Basket Index is built from public, traceable data - institutional statistics, industry body reports, specialised market intelligence and peer-reviewed journalism. The full source list is reproduced below for verification and citation.
Limitations and reservations. Dimension values are based on normalised quantitative inputs where data are available, and on informed estimates where no country-specific public data exist. The overall value is a structural index and does not represent a price forecast. Afterbuy Research is a data journalism function of Afterbuy GmbH. Contact: press@press.primespotpr.com
All scores, dimensions, source data and methodology behind this index are available for editorial use. The underlying data table and per-dimension scores can be supplied as CSV. Visualisations (the country grid, the basket matrix, the methodology table) can be supplied as high-resolution images. For interview requests, additional country breakdowns, source verification or any clarification on the underlying data, please use the press contact opposite.